The Church in Sudan.There are several possible scenarios that might happen in the following weeks. Here are 3 that have been written about:
The president, ministers, premiers, members of Parliament, provincial authorities, mayors, advisors, ambassadors and government officials.
The Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).
The Darfur situation.
The country of Sudan as a whole.
Foreigners in the country.
1) Scenario one—President Bashir opts for confrontation with the international community: By intensifying the aggressive crackdown in Darfur that he began in Muhajiriya in advance of the warrant, increasing aerial bombardments of civilians, restricting or expelling humanitarians and peacekeepers, stepping up support for Chadian rebels, threatening to withdraw from the CPA, or backtracking on counterterrorism cooperation, Bashir could force the international community to take more assertive action or back down
2) Scenario two- Internal pressure forces Bashir from office: Given the mounting pressure from within, Bashir could decide to peacefully step aside and cede control to a new NCP candidate, who would participate in the upcoming national elections. Alternatively, rivals within the party could attempt to take power by force.
3) Scenario 3- Bashir stalls for time: After years of what the new U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice calls “bluster and retreat,” by the international community, Bashir may well calculate that the pressure arising from the arrest warrant will eventually dissipate.